AI Top Trades (long/short ranking)
AI Top Trades is Top Tier Newswire's flagship signal: a ranked board of long and short ticker opportunities, rated by conviction score and refreshed every few minutes during market hours.
How it works
Every ~7 minutes a fine-tuned language model rates a bounded universe of candidates (~25-30 finalists pre-selected by combined signal strength across news, X / social, insider Form 4 flow, and US congressional trade flow). Per ticker the model returns:
- Direction: long, short, or avoid
- Conviction: 0-100 (0-30 weak, 31-60 moderate, 61-85 strong multi-signal, 86-100 overwhelming)
- Thesis: 1-2 sentences naming the specific drivers
- Drivers: enum-tagged signals —
insider_buy_cluster,news_bullish,price_divergence,congress_buy,trending_spike,earnings_beat, etc.
The visible board is the top 10 longs and top 10 shorts by conviction. Avoids drop off — the model returning "avoid" means there's no edge, not a directional call.
What goes into the evidence pack
Each rating is grounded in a structured pack per ticker — never the raw firehose:
- Top headlines (5) and top tweets (3) from the last 48 hours
- 90-day SEC insider buying / selling net dollars
- 90-day US House PTR trade flow
- Live price + day move + multi-window price history (5d, 1m, 3m, 6m, 1y)
- 52-week range position + volume vs 30-day average
- Sector-relative move vs the appropriate sector ETF (XLK / SMH / IBB / XLF etc.)
- Short interest % of float and ownership composition
- Attention spike vs the ticker's own 14-day baseline
- Earnings event-risk flag (within 7 days)
The pack is bounded text. The model never sees the full unbounded news DB.
Learning loop
We capture every rating with the exact evidence pack and entry price. Forward returns are matured at 1-day, 3-day, 7-day, and 14-day horizons. A nightly recompute aggregates outcomes per driver code and per conviction bucket — building empirical win rates that calibrate future ratings. The model's weights are frozen; the calibration layer translates raw conviction into outcome-adjusted conviction.
See the live board (Pro) → · Browse the public archive ≥7d old →